Super Bowl Preview

By Ryan Shurgin

Kansas City Chiefs (17–2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17–3)

When/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (over/under: 48.5)

Key Matchup: The running game will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Kansas City caught a break in the AFC Championship when Buffalo underutilized James Cook on a crucial drive with 3 minutes left, despite his impressive 6.5 yards per carry. Now, the Chiefs face a tougher challenge in Saquon Barkley, who has been dominant in the playoffs, averaging 147.3 rushing yards over his last three games. Many people know Saquon Barkley’s explosiveness and they expect it to be on display, but he’ll be up against one of the league’s most disciplined defenses. Chris Jones was a disruptive force against Buffalo, making short-yardage situations difficult for Cook and Josh Allen. To keep Kansas City on its heels, Philadelphia could look to incorporate Barkley more in the passing game. As well as this, we saw the Chiefs stop Josh Allen on QB sneaks, but will they be able to stop the game’s absolute best short-yardage play, the Tush Push? I guess we will see.

Key Analytics: Despite having a strong offensive line, Jalen Hurts remains vulnerable to sacks. No team threw the ball fewer times than the Eagles this season, yet they still allowed 45 sacks. A major factor is Hurts’ extended time in the pocket his 2.7 seconds per drop-back was the highest in the NFL. Philadelphia also surrendered a sack on 9.1% of pass plays. This matchup could be a big opportunity for Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzing defensive front.

Best Bet: Chiefs -1.5

Year after year, Kansas City proves that analytics don’t always tell the full story. No matter how strong their opponent looks on paper, it rarely matters. Patrick Mahomes has the DNA of a champion, Andy Reid is an offensive genius, and Steve Spagnuolo has built one of the most reliable playoff defenses in history. Everyone knows the Chiefs elevate their game in the postseason, and it all starts with Mahomes. Many have bet against Kansas City in the playoffs far too often in recent years, but I hope people have finally learned their lesson. When the postseason arrives, this team flips a switch, and I see no reason why that won’t continue in New Orleans.

Ryan’s prediction: Eagles 28, Chiefs 35: Kansas City has thrived in close games all season, consistently finding ways to win tight matchups. This game will be no different. While Philadelphia excels at controlling possession, the Chiefs have repeatedly proven they can deliver in high-pressure moments. Like they have all year, Mahomes and company will find a way to make the crucial plays late in the game.